We have been supplying inference, projections, simulations of intervention effects to the CDC, NYC DOHMH, NYCH+H, NY State DOH and others. Posting, publications and links are provided below.
Visualization Links: US State-resolved projections. US Surge Capacity Maps. US Surge Capacity Line Graphs. County-by-County Estimates of Reproductive Number County-by-County Estimates of Community Infection Rates (Reported and Undocumented)
- Pei, S., K. Dahl, T.K. Yamana, R. Licker and J. Shaman. Compound risks of hurricane evacuation amid the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. medRxiv, 103655, doi:10.1101/2020.08.07.20170555.
- Lamb, M. R., S. Kandula and J. Shaman. Differential COVID-19 case positivity in New York City neighborhoods: socioeconomic factors and mobility. medRxiv, 144188, doi:10.1101/2020.06.27.20144188.
- Yang, W., S. Kandula, M. Huynh, S. K. Greene, G. Van Wye, W. Li, H T. Chan, E. McGibbon, A. Yeung, D. Olson, A. Fine and J. Shaman. Estimating the infection fatality risk of COVID-19 in New York City, March 1 – May 16, 2020. medRxiv, 141689, doi:10.1101/2020.06.27.20141689.
- Emeruwa, U.N., S. Ona, J. Shaman, A. Turitz, J. D. Wright, C. Gyamfi-Bannerman and A. Melamed, 2020: Associations between built environment, neighborhood socioeconomic status and SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant women in New York City. JAMA, 324(4):390-392, doi:10.1001/jama.2020.11370.
- Pei, S., S. Kandula and J. Shaman. Differential Effects of Intervention Timing on COVID-19 Spread in the United States. medRxiv, 103655, doi:10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655.
- Yamana, T., S. Pei and J. Shaman. Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open, May 4,2020. medRxiv, 90670, doi:10.1101/2020.05.04.20090670.
- Pei, S., M. Galanti, T. Yamana and J. Shaman. Reconciling diverse estimates of COVID-19 infection rates.
- Galanti, M. and J. Shaman. Direct observations of repeated infections with endemic coronaviruses. The Journal of Infectious Diseases.
- Branas, C.C., A. Rundle, S. Pei, W. Yang, B.G. Carr, S. Sims, A. Zebrowski, R. Doorley, N. Schluger, J.W. Quinn, and J. Shaman. Flattening the curve before it flattens us: hospital critical care capacity limits and mortality from novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) cases in US counties. The model output is here.
- Yang, W., S. Kandula and J. Shaman. Eight-week model projections of COVID-19 in New York City. March 29, 2020.
- Pei, S. and J. Shaman. Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US with Variable Contact Rates, March 24, 2020. The model output is posted here.
- Pei, S. and J. Shaman. Initial Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US. medRxiv, 40303, doi:10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303. Findings also published in New York Times. The model output is posted here.
- Li, R., S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang and J. Shaman, 2020: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science, 368(6490):489-493, doi:10.1126/science.abb3221.
- Shaman, J. and M. Galanti, 2020: Direct measurement of rates of asymptomatic infection and clinical care-seeking for seasonal coronavirus. medRxiv, 19612, doi:10.1101/2020.01.30.20019612.