Publications

PEER-REVIEWED BOOKS

• (2020, with Daniela Campello) “The Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies’‘, Cambridge University Press.
• (2018, with David Samuels) “Partisans, Antipartisans, and Nonpartisans: Voting Behavior in Brazil” Cambridge University Press.

PEER-REVIEWED ARTICLES

• (2025, with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes) “Benefits by luck: A study of lotteries as a selection method for government programs.” Comparative Political Studies. 58(10):2130-2160. Replication materials and supplemental information available here. Mentioned in Hélio Schwartsman’s column in Folha de São Paulo. Best Comparative Policy Paper award by APSA’s Public Policy Section.
• (2025, with Timothy Power) “It’s My Party and I’ll Lie If I Want To: Elite Ideological Obfuscation in Post-Authoritarian Settings” Party Politics. 31(2):310–322.  Replication materials and supplemental information available here.
• (2024, with Fernando Mello and David Samuels)  “Partisan Stereotyping and Polarization in Brazil” Latin American Politics and Society. 66(Special Issue 2):47-71. Replication materials available here.
• (2024, with Timothy Power) “The Ideology of Brazilian Parties and Presidents: A Research Note on Coalitional Presidentialism Under Stress” Latin American Politics and Society. 66(1):178–188. Replication materials and estimates available here.
• (2024, with M. Batista and T. Power) “Be Careful What You Wish For: Portfolio Allocation, Presidential Popularity, and Electoral Payoffs to Parties in Multiparty Presidentialism” Party Politics, 30(4):622-636.
• (2023, with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes) “What you see and what you get: direct and indirect political dividends of public policies” British Journal of Political Science, 53(4):1273–1292. Replication materials available here. Best paper presented at the REPAL 2022 conference.
• (2023, with A. K. Lenz, R. Goldszmidt, and M. Valdivia) “Do political preferences affect policy learning and uptake? Evidence from a field experiment with micro-entrepreneurs in Brazil.”  The Journal of Politics, 85(3):1003–1016. Replication materials available here.
• (2022, with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes) “Making the bourgeoisie? Values, voice, and state-provided homeownership” The Journal of Politics, 84(4):2064-2079 Supplemental information and replication materials available here. An earlier version received the prize for best paper on public policy by APSA’s Public Policy Section.
• (2021, with A. K. Lenz, R. Goldszmidt, and C. Sutter) “Problemistic Search among Entrepreneurs in Brazilian Favelas” Journal of Business Venturing, 36(6):106162.
• (2021, with  R. Goldszmidt, P. Behr, A. K. Lenz, L., and M. Valdivia) “Microcredit Impacts: Evidence from a Large-Scale Observational Study in Brazil” European Journal of Development Research, 34:1940–1966.
• (2021, with Timothy Power) “Fragmentation Without Cleavages? Ideology, Policy Preferences, and Political Polarization in Brazil” Comparative Politics, 53(3):477-500.  Supplemental information and estimates of ideological positions of parties are available here.
• (2020, with Anna-Katharina Lenz, Rafael Goldszmidt, and Martin Valdivia) “Face-to-face vs. virtual assistance to entrepreneurs: Evidence from a field experiment in Brazil” Economics Letters, 188:108922. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
• (2020, with Daniela Campello) “Endogenous Policymaking” The Journal of Politics, 82(2):800-807. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
• (2020, with Juan Pablo Luna and Gokce Baykal) “Do Conditionalities Increase Support for Government Transfers?” Journal of Development Studies. 56(3):527-544. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials are available here.
• (2019, with Mariana Batista and Timothy Power) “Measuring portfolio salience using the Bradley-Terry model: An illustration with data from Brazil” Research & Politics. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
• (2018, with Bruno Rodrigues) “A Direct Comparison of the Performance of Public-Private Partnerships with that of Traditional Contracting” Brazilian Journal of Public Administration 52(6):1237-1257.
• (2016, with Jairo Nicolau) “Trading Old Errors for New Errors? The Impact of Electronic Voting Technology on Party Label Votes in Brazil” Electoral Studies, 43:10-20. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials available here.
• (2016, with Daniela Campello) “Presidential Success and the World Economy” The Journal of Politics 78(2):589–602. Supplemental information, data, and replication materials are available here.
• (2015, with David Samuels) “Crafting Mass Partisanship at the Grass Roots, from the Top Down” British Journal of Political Science 45(4):755-775. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
• (2015) “The Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Four Presidential Elections (2002-2014)” Brazilian Political Science Review 9(1):135-149. Supplemental information and replication materials available here.
• (2014, with David Samuels) “Lulismo, Petismo, and the Future of Brazilian Politics” Journal of Politics in Latin America 6(3):129–158.
• (2014, with David Samuels) “The Power of Partisanship in Brazil: Evidence from Survey Experiments” American Journal of Political Science 51(1):212-35. An inactive version of the online survey is available here. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
• (2013) “When Payouts Pay Off: Conditional Cash-Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil 2002-2010” American Journal of Political Science 47(3):810-822. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
• (2013, with Timothy Power) “Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula’s Electoral Base, 2002-2006” Latin American Research Review 48(2):3-24. Supplemental information and replication materials are available here.
• (2013) “Legislative Coalitions in Presidential Systems: The Case of Uruguay” Latin American Politics and Society 55(1):96-118. Supplemental information, replication materials, and ideal point estimates are available here.
• (2012, with Timothy Power) “Elite Preferences in a Consolidating Democracy: The Brazilian Legislative Surveys, 1990-2009” Latin American Politics and Society 54(4):1-27. Supplemental information, replication materials, and estimates are available here.
• (2011, with Ben Lauderdale) “Distinguishing Between Influences on Brazilian Legislative Behavior” Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(3):363-396. Links to Supplemental information, complete set of ideal point estimates and roll call votes.
• (2009) “Ideology or What? Legislative Behavior in Multiparty Presidential Settings” The Journal of Politics, 71(3):1076-1092. Data available here.
• (2009, with Timothy Power) “Estimating Ideology of Brazilian Legislative Parties, 1990-2005” Latin American Research Review, 44(1):218-246. Data available here.
• (2008) “The President’s `New’ Constituency: Lula and the Pragmatic Vote in Brazil’s 2006 Presidential Election” Journal of Latin American Studies, 40 p.29-49. Data available here.
• (2007) “Where’s the Bias: A Reassessment of the Chilean Electoral System” Electoral Studies, 26, p.303-14. Data available here.

OTHER SCHOLARLY PUBLICATIONS

• (2018, with David Samuels) “Partisans, Anti-Partisans, and Voter Behavior,” in Ames, Barry (org.) “Routledge Handbook of Brazilian Politics” Routledge, p.269-289.
• (2016, with David Samuels) “Party-Building in Brazil: The Rise of the PT in Perspective,” in Levitsky, S., J. Loxton, B. Van Dyck, J. Dominguez (eds.) Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America. Cambridge University Press.
• (2015) “Estabilidad Sin Raices: La Institucionalización del Sistema de Partidos Brasileño” In Mariano Torcal (org.) Sistemas de partidos en América Latina. Causas y consecuencias de su equilibrio inestable, Ch. 3, Anthropos.
• (2015, with Daniela Campello) “Understanding the Increasing Popularity of Brazilian Presidents,” In Needell, Jeffrey (org.) Emergent Brazil: Key Perspectives on a New Global Power, University Press of Florida, Gainesville, Ch.3. pp.51–67.
• (2011, co-edited volume organized with Timothy Power) O Congresso por ele mesmo. UFMG Press, Belo Horizonte. Data available here.
  • Esquerda, Direita e Governo: A ideologia dos partidos políticos brasileiros(Chapter in the above mentioned book)
• (2008, with Daniela Campello) “A esquerda em um país democrático, globalizado e desigual: Uma análise do Brasil de Lula“ in Moreira, Carlos et al (Editors), La nueva política en América Latina: rupturas y continuidades. Trilice, Montevideo, p.97-124.