Dana Goldman – The Economic Returns to Delayed Aging: Promises and Pitfalls

Allan Rosenfield Building, Room 440, 722 West 168^th Street

Dana Goldman, PhD, Leonard D. Schaeffer Director’s Chair, Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics, University of Southern California

Most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases, despite robust evidence that delayed aging remains a realistic goal. Using the Future Elderly Model, a microsimulation of future health and spending of older Americans, we compared optimistic disease specific scenarios with a delayed aging scenario to see their effects on longevity, disability, and Federal spending. We find that delayed aging is a particularly good investment, as it could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The value to society is $7 trillion over fifty years. Disease-specific investments have more modest returns, mainly due to competing risks. The fiscal challenges of delayed aging are manageable through modest policy changes. Overall, more research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health, albeit with the potential to exacerbate existing health disparities.