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    December 2016
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    • Greg Blotnick – MarketWatch – Hedge Funds February 9, 2017
      Opinion: Investors are dumping hedge funds just when they’re needed most – Greg Blotnick Hedge funds today are about as welcome as a stick in the eye. Endowment funds and pension funds are reducing allocations en masse in favor of indexing and private equity, as outflows reach levels unseen since the financial crisis. Harvard University… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Correlations have crashed January 24, 2017
      boon for stock pickers  (per MS) “CORRELATIONS HAVE CRASHED: Editors at Morgan Stanley won’t let analysts use the word ‘crash’ without a good reason and its best way to describe what has happened since election across globe…regional correlations, cross-asset correlations and individual stock and FX correlations have fallen simultaneously. That’s unusual; we haven’t seen a… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • 1/11/2017 – Macro from RBC January 11, 2017
      McElligott on how “its all the same trade”: The US Dollar is the “grand unifying theory asset” for nearly any and all “profile” global macro or thematic equities trades in the marketplace right now, as it represents investors being long this “new” version of “economic growth.”  As such, performance is significantly tied to the direction… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Morning Markets – Dave Lutz – 1/9/17 January 9, 2017
      “Good Morning!   US Futures are starting slightly under pressure, confounding the peeps on CNBC wearing their Dow20,000 hats.   We have pretty much a sea of red across Europe, with the DAX off 55bp in a market that sees Fins and Energy lagging.  Multiple Italian banks are being halted limit down, hitting the MIB for 1.7%… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • 2017 Forecasts – Stifel, Canaccord January 4, 2017
      Stifel: Our S&P 500 target is 2,400 in 2017 with no recession seen until late 2018 Our S&P 500 target is 2,400 in 2017 with no recession seen until late 2018. The S&P 500 continues to act as if Fed exit began in May 2014 during the QE3 taper and we expect the Fed to… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Wisconsin College Using Snapchat to Notify Students of Acceptance December 14, 2016
      UWGB adopts a new way to reach incoming students. Source: UWGB Using Snapchat to Notify Students of Acceptance
      Greg Blotnick
    • McElligott at RBC – Grossing Down December 13, 2016
      RBC Big Picture (Charlie McElligott) – DATA AND TRUMP KICKING-UP ‘ANIMAL SPIRITS,’ AGAINST SIGNS OF Y.E. GROSS-DOWNS –good commentary from Charlie at RBC: OVERNIGHT: Generally higher equities (Estoxx / DAX still holding at highs while Spooz dip ‘red’—highlighting the ‘relative value’ of EU equities against US as they break-out, see Mark Orsley’s piece today) and… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • CS – “Sticking With Small Over Large” December 8, 2016
      Small caps set to benefit more under Trump administration tax rate the key driver (and lack of foreign revenue) IWM’s “have become a show me story. The main DRIVER supporting small cap is Economic Indicators & Policy, as small tends to lead when real US GDP is 2-3% range. Small caps also benefit from protectionism… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • OpCo: Revisiting Yield Vehicles In Context of Rising Rates December 7, 2016
      Revisiting Yield Vehicles In Context of Rising Rates & Slower Replacement Cycle
      Greg Blotnick
    • Small caps saw the most PE expansion since April ‘09 – BAML December 6, 2016
      Small caps saw the most PE expansion since April ‘09
      Greg Blotnick

    Goodreads

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    Greg Blotnick – What Traders Are Watching 12/12

    Gregory Blotnick – What Traders Are Watching: 12/12/2016 Abbreviated format this AM.   Running off to PT – Back by 8:30.

    “What Traders are Watching” – Gregory Blotnick 12/12

    greg blotnick 1

    greg blotnick 1

    OIL HIGHER – Gregory Blotnick 12/12– Over the weekend, a group of heavyweight producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia, agreed to scale back their output by 558,000 barrels a day[wsj.com]. The move would come on top of the cut of 1.2 million barrels a day agreed to by OPEC in late November. The total reduction represents almost 2% of the global supply.

    greg blotnick 2

    greg blotnick 2

    The market got an extra boost of confidence on reports that Saudi Arabia indicated that, if necessary, the kingdom may be willing to take a deeper cut than the 486,000-barrel cut it had agreed in the November meeting – All Eyeballs on[twitter.com] the inverse “Head and Shoulders” formation in WTI

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    greg blotnick 3

     Twitters note[telegraph.co.uk] that Russia being named to monitoring committee increasing the probability of compliance

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    greg blotnick 4

    The weekend’s Oil deal “clearly is going to secure inflationary pressures” going into the first quarter of 2017.  JGB’s say their 10YY go to 7bp, while Bunds and Treasuries are getting hit across the board, with heavy steepeners going thru

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    greg blotnick 5

    Maybe Oil Likes Rex? – Trump’s top candidate for chief diplomat is uncompromising Texan[ft.com] – A broad-shouldered, plain-speaking Texan engineer, the 64-year-old Mr Tillerson has led Exxon since 2006 and worked at the company for 41 years. His character and the company’s reflect each other: highly competent, intellectually rigorous, but also often inflexible. He is not a polished diplomat. But he has been an effective negotiator, and has maintained and developed Exxon’s relationships with resource-rich countries all over the world.

    CHINA WHACKED– China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months on Monday as blue-chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers’ aggressive stock investments[chinadaily.com.cn], while rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.  China’s insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb “barbaric” acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended Evergrande Life, the insurance arm of China Evergrande Group, from conducting stock market investment.

    That hit the market hard as insurers’ relentless buying in modestly-priced industry-leading blue-chips was one of the main drivers behind the recent strong advance in the market.

    WATCH UNICREDIT– UniCredit SpA agreed to sell its asset-management unit Pioneer Investments[wsj.com] to France’s Amundi SA for €3.88 billion ($4.10 billion), bolstering its capital buffers as it tries to meet tougher new banking regulations.  The sale of Pioneer, which manages assets worth €225.8 billion, is part of a broader plan that UniCredit is set to announce on Tuesday to strengthen its finances.

    Italian bank stocks are rebounding on Monday morning after Paolo Gentiloni was appointed[ft.com] as the country’s new technocratic prime minister in an effort to ensure a quick solution to the country’s current political crisis.  The FTSE Italian Bank Index has gotten upside 200dma, and feels like tomorrow could spark a huge cover event

    Monte dei Paschi pushes on with capital plan to avoid state recapitalization – The Italian bank will up its efforts to woo investors into a debt-for-equity swap this week, as it looks to attracted the €5bn needed to avoid a state bailout that would result in serious losses for its bond and shareholders. Monte’s Debt has clawed back ½ of Friday’s losses

    FED AHEADOn Wednesday, there will be particular focus on the Fed’s new “dot plot”[ft.com] — a map of where individual officials project the Fed funds rate will be in the next three years.

    It “could give us a first look at FOMC members’ true thoughts on whether they feel that the fiscal policy initiatives announced by the new US administration will boost the economy in 2017 or whether they have concerns about the adverse impact of trade policies on the US economy”

    December’s option expiration has a bullish history. In fact, the week of options expiration and the week after have the most bullish record of all Triple Witching expirations, AlmanacTrader reports[jeffhirsch.tumblr.com]

     SOME OF THE OTHER HEADLINES

    BIDDING WARS– President-elect Donald Trump has two major changes[smh.com.au] affecting multinationals under his tax reform agenda. First, he wants to cut the corporate income tax rate from 35 per cent to 15 per cent.  Second, he wants to introduce a special corporate tax repatriation holiday rate whereby corporations with money stashed overseas would be able to pay a tax rate of just 10 per cent on that income in order to bring it back into the United States.

    Tax experts have already warned this could usher in tax revenue wars.  KPMG said countries that do not cut their tax rates would be “outliers” and this would have a negative impact on their economy.  KPMG chairman Peter Nash said we could see “bidding wars” between nations to attract investment

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