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    Greg Blotnick – Sidebar

    October 2016
    M T W T F S S
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    • Greg Blotnick – MarketWatch – Hedge Funds February 9, 2017
      Opinion: Investors are dumping hedge funds just when they’re needed most – Greg Blotnick Hedge funds today are about as welcome as a stick in the eye. Endowment funds and pension funds are reducing allocations en masse in favor of indexing and private equity, as outflows reach levels unseen since the financial crisis. Harvard University… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Correlations have crashed January 24, 2017
      boon for stock pickers  (per MS) “CORRELATIONS HAVE CRASHED: Editors at Morgan Stanley won’t let analysts use the word ‘crash’ without a good reason and its best way to describe what has happened since election across globe…regional correlations, cross-asset correlations and individual stock and FX correlations have fallen simultaneously. That’s unusual; we haven’t seen a… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • 1/11/2017 – Macro from RBC January 11, 2017
      McElligott on how “its all the same trade”: The US Dollar is the “grand unifying theory asset” for nearly any and all “profile” global macro or thematic equities trades in the marketplace right now, as it represents investors being long this “new” version of “economic growth.”  As such, performance is significantly tied to the direction… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Morning Markets – Dave Lutz – 1/9/17 January 9, 2017
      “Good Morning!   US Futures are starting slightly under pressure, confounding the peeps on CNBC wearing their Dow20,000 hats.   We have pretty much a sea of red across Europe, with the DAX off 55bp in a market that sees Fins and Energy lagging.  Multiple Italian banks are being halted limit down, hitting the MIB for 1.7%… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • 2017 Forecasts – Stifel, Canaccord January 4, 2017
      Stifel: Our S&P 500 target is 2,400 in 2017 with no recession seen until late 2018 Our S&P 500 target is 2,400 in 2017 with no recession seen until late 2018. The S&P 500 continues to act as if Fed exit began in May 2014 during the QE3 taper and we expect the Fed to… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • Wisconsin College Using Snapchat to Notify Students of Acceptance December 14, 2016
      UWGB adopts a new way to reach incoming students. Source: UWGB Using Snapchat to Notify Students of Acceptance
      Greg Blotnick
    • McElligott at RBC – Grossing Down December 13, 2016
      RBC Big Picture (Charlie McElligott) – DATA AND TRUMP KICKING-UP ‘ANIMAL SPIRITS,’ AGAINST SIGNS OF Y.E. GROSS-DOWNS –good commentary from Charlie at RBC: OVERNIGHT: Generally higher equities (Estoxx / DAX still holding at highs while Spooz dip ‘red’—highlighting the ‘relative value’ of EU equities against US as they break-out, see Mark Orsley’s piece today) and… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • CS – “Sticking With Small Over Large” December 8, 2016
      Small caps set to benefit more under Trump administration tax rate the key driver (and lack of foreign revenue) IWM’s “have become a show me story. The main DRIVER supporting small cap is Economic Indicators & Policy, as small tends to lead when real US GDP is 2-3% range. Small caps also benefit from protectionism… […]
      Greg Blotnick
    • OpCo: Revisiting Yield Vehicles In Context of Rising Rates December 7, 2016
      Revisiting Yield Vehicles In Context of Rising Rates & Slower Replacement Cycle
      Greg Blotnick
    • Small caps saw the most PE expansion since April ‘09 – BAML December 6, 2016
      Small caps saw the most PE expansion since April ‘09
      Greg Blotnick


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    Thoughts on Markets 10/19/2016 – JonesTrading

    Good Morning!  US Futures are mixed this AM as Earnings continue to roll (INTC getting clobbered) and China GDP on target with 6.7% growth.   Euro Markets are mostly red, with the DAX off 10bp as only Consumer Discretionary seems to be well bid in Germany.   Italy is outperforming on Monte Paschi headers – the only exchange in the green.   UK is getting hit for 10bp as UK Builders under pressure on Travis Perkins and Consumer from Reckitt’s #s.  Volumes across Europe are light, with most echanges 10-20% below Trend.

    Thoughts on Markets Deux:

    The Dollar is backing off 7month peaks as Fed fund futures around a 65% probability of a move, down from 70% pre CPI yesterday.  The Euro is a bit weaker ahead of ECB tomorrow – while $/Y is breaking lower quicker as headers say BOJ “No Additional Easing” roll.   The US 10YY had a test and bounce off the 200dma overnight as Investors put in for the Saudi Bond Deal.  Metals are mixed, with Gold enjoying the falling $, while Nickel gets whacked for 1%+.  WTI has shot back above $51 as the Saudi oil minister calls an end to price ‘downturn’ and a Huge draw in API inventories support WTI into expirytomorrow.   Natty gas is getting whacked for almost 2% tho.   Softs are weak across the board.

    We have a heavy slate of Catalysts today, with Housing Starts and Building Permits for September along with Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 – Fed’s Williams Speaks in New Jersey at 8:45.  At 9:50 we get the Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results, just before the Bank of Canada Rate Decision at 10.  10:30 brings that DOE data for Crude.

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    Thoughts on Markets Three:

    Chinese GDP 6.7% yoy 3Q flat vs Q2. We revise GDP growth to 2016e 6.7% yoy (was 6.4%) & 2017e 6.6% yoy (was 6.5%). We lift CPI inflation 2016e  2.0% yoy (was 1.8%) & 2017e 1.6% yoy (was1.3%). China’s September money & credit data > expectations. IP growth 6.1% yoy in Sept < expected vs 6.3% in August.

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