Public opinion and policy responsiveness: gay rights in the states

Public opinion and policy responsiveness: gay rights in the states

Description

We study the determinants and consequences of public opinion on gay rights issues (e.g., same-sex marriage, civil unions, same-sex adoption, and employment non-discrimination). We analyze dozens of national surveys of public opinion on specific state policies using recent advances in multilevel modeling, allowing us to estimate the effects of key demographic predictors such as age, education, gender, race, and religion, while also modeling differences across states and regions. We then generate highly accurate estimates of opinion within each state on each issue using census data to poststratify by demographic composition. Next, we explore the sensitivity of governmental policy to public opinion, considering both responsiveness across states and congruence within each state. We find that that the demographic predictors above all have strong effects, but that these effects vary significantly over policies. We also show clear differences across states and regions in pro-gay support, again varying across policy areas, with a clear divide between issues of personal relationships and issues of economic fairness or justice. Finally, we show a high degree of policy responsiveness, but also persistent incongruence. In some policy areas, even supermajority support appears insufficient for policy adoption, particularly in those policies relating to economic fairness.

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